The 2023 harvest – one of the latest we have seen in a number of years – has belatedly entered its final stretch. Picking in the North Coast and Interior is now all but complete; in the Central Coast it has another few days left to run. Slower ripening amid a cooler and wetter than normal growing season, plus some sizing-up through September, led to a compressed harvest in October; wineries had work to do finding crush and storage capacity with everything all coming in at a similar time.
September’s sizing nudged up the crop potential and the subsequent weeks brought no major weather issues: There was some helpful heat, and while there were periods of rain, significant rainfall held off. Consequently, the harvest window remained open and all contracted grapes could get picked. The statewide crop potential likely rose from approximately 3.8 million tons in August to something like 4.1 million by the end of October. But a significant number of rejections amid high fungus pressure and rot, quantities of unsold fruit left hanging, and some overages failing to find a home, are likely to have dragged back what was actually crushed to something more like 3.5-3.6 million tons. This remains a very tentative estimate, given all the aforementioned variable factors.
The longer hangtimes for the white grapes and earlier reds are believed to have been beneficial to their quality. We continue to hear positive comments regarding the wine being made for the 2023 vintage and we will know more as samples come in and approval tastings get underway.
Quantitatively, Chardonnay seems to have benefitted most from the sizing and hangtime and has continued to be picked well into the back-end of harvest; some wineries began turning Chardonnay and other white grapes away so that they could finally begin pressing the reds. Chardonnay output in the Interior and Central Coast appeared to be on the larger side, so too Sauvignon Blanc in the Interior. Northern Interior areas hit hard by frost in 2022 – mainly producing Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir – appear to have bounced back strongly this year; Zinfandel and Cabernet tonnages, meanwhile, seem to have sized less but still came in above average.
We have started to see a return to the pre-pandemic dynamic of some Coastal wines and grapes selling at – or even below – California pricing. While this will ultimately be good news for wine consumers and attempts to bolster their numbers, the industry can appreciate it will be tough for suppliers, especially with the burden of current interest rates and costs of goods sold. But operators – buyers and sellers alike – are best able to realise opportunities when they accept the reality of the market in front of them, however far removed it may be from their ideal, and we continue to believe there are opportunities in this market.
And – whisper it – there have been faint rumblings in recent weeks of better wine sales numbers. Few would be bold enough to make predictions about OND sales now, let alone what 2024 will bring: Only time will tell. In the meantime, for the most up to the minute information, get in touch with Ciatti directly – the broker team can draw on its many decades of experience to help guide buyers and sellers through this time of flux.