“It goes without saying that 2021 is hard to predict” we wrote last January, after a dramatic 2020 that brought with it a global pandemic and, in California, record-breaking wildfires. Thankfully, 2021 proved less momentous, with the rapid vaccination rollout enabling at least some semblance of normal life to return and a wet October helping to contain the wildfire threat.
By April the on-premise – which in the COVID-19 era has become even more the barometer of economic and societal well-being – had reopened in every US state, albeit under varying restrictions. Correspondingly, the upsurge in off-premise wine sales – brought about by consumer pantry stocking in response to COVID-19’s arrival – began to abate, so that by year-end there was a question mark as to whether sales were trending above their 2019 prepandemic level, let alone the 2020 spike.
With COVID-19 still a problem two years on from its first appearance, visibility moving forward remains patchy. Currently we see – between growers and suppliers on the one hand and buyers on the other – a polarized reading of the situation. The former see two-successive lighter crops (as well as potentially a third in 2022) and still-respectable retail sales versus 2019 as justifying firm pricing; buyers see sales returning to their pre-pandemic – i.e., stagnant – levels. Additionally, those on both sides of the argument must cover or offset inflationary pressure on input costs (the 12-month inflation rate reached 6.8% in November, its highest since July 1982), and probably the biggest question mark over the wine industry in 2022 is the same over every other part of the economy: How high will inflation go and if/when will it have an impact on consumer confidence? Only time will tell. In the meantime:
- Wineries should let us know what 2021 bulk wines they have available so that we can help them find a buyer. Likewise, buyers of bulk wine should let us know their requirements so we can fulfil them quickly.
- Grape suppliers should update us on the 2022 grapes they will have for sale. Buyers of grapes should register their interest with us so we can match them up with a supplier.
To get your bulk wine listed, please contact either Mark at +1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com or Michael at +1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com. To get your grapes listed, contact Molly at +1 415 630 2416 or molly@ciatti.com.
We at Ciatti would like to wish all our friends, clients and business associates a very happy and healthy New Year. Thank you all for your continued support. We are, as ever, here to help you navigate the twists and turns of the marketplace, so don’t hesitate to get in touch.