The California Department of Food and Agriculture’s preliminary 2021 crush figure, published February 10th, was in line with our pre-harvest projection at 3,613,009 tons. This represents a 6.1% increase from 2020’s small 3.4 million tons but is still below what would be considered a normal crop. The uptick versus the prior year was mainly due to larger crops than many expected in Lodi – which contributed over 100,000 more tons than the year before – and the Central Coast. The North Coast was a mixed picture (Napa and Sonoma were up, Lake and Mendocino down) while the southern Central Valley continued its downward tonnage trend over the past five years, likely due to lack of water.
The leading varietals by tonnage, Chardonnay (+14.5% to 616,536 tons) and Cabernet (+18.3% to 590,249), both saw gains versus 2020. Pinot Noir experienced the biggest uptick (+29.6% to 273,728 tons), with Monterey delivering its largest Pinot Noir crop ever. Of the major varietals, only Zinfandel (-2.1%) and Pinot Gris (-2%) saw falls. The state-wide average tonnage price was $884/ton, up 30.1%. This reflects the anomaly caused by the smoke impact of 2020 and the depressing effect it had – especially in the Coastal regions – on prices, which were renegotiated at significant discounts post-wildfires. For a more complete breakdown of the preliminary harvest result, and more comment, see Ciatti’s press release here.
California’s bulk market has been active in the past two months, mainly in Napa, Sonoma and some varietal-specific appellations on the Coast, and in small increments in the Central Valley. The big development is that some wineries have put batches of bulk wine back onto the Valley’s market, while some sellers have added more gallons to their availability lists. This is likely indicative of a slowdown in retail sales as consumer patterns return to their pre-pandemic normal in general and slower OND sales in particular. Where activity is occurring on the Coast’s 2022 grapes reflects where the bulk activity is: Napa, Sonoma, varietalspecific appellations, and on Coastal Sauvignon Blanc in general. Activity in the Valley on uncontracted grapes has continued robustly, especially on any varietal, generic and floral whites that become available.
Inhibiting deals on both the bulk wine and grape markets is the stalemate between two sets of price expectations: suppliers see two-successive lighter crops and rising input costs as reasons to stay firm or move up on price, while buyers wrestling with their own input cost increases and slowing wine sales at retail are pushing back against such prices.
Following a very wet December, the driest January on record in many parts of California has pushed Sierra Nevada snowpack levels back below average and the forecast for February is for further dryness. In addition, we have heard reports from the vineyards of sub-par spur and cane robustness making selection difficult when pruning, attributable to conditions last year. These factors place a question mark over the 2022 crop, but, with budbreak still a few weeks away, it’s far too early to be drawing firm conclusions.
Get in touch regarding your bulk wine samples and the 2022 grapes you will have for sale. Likewise, keep us updated on your bulk wine or grape needs. As ever, we stand ready to draw on our decades of experience to help you navigate the market. In the meantime, read on for deeper dives into the bulk wine and grape markets, and stay safe.