Mid-September brought three to four days of rainfall to California, mainly to the North Coast’s growing areas and in the lower Central Coast areas around Santa Barbara. Up to three inches of rain fell in some parts. Isolated Central Valley areas also received precipitation. Since then, the weather has been excellent – warm and clear – for finishing up harvest in an orderly manner.
The rain fell just a few days after an intense heatwave that brought a week of 105-115° temperatures. Such volatility of conditions was simply the latest in a growing season that has experienced the full spectrum – excluding wildfires/ smoke – that Mother Nature can throw up, sometimes back-to-back: Isolated frost and hail, record heat, rain and humidity, cloudiness, more record heat, more rain, all the while drought being an underlying concern. Early September’s heatwave potentially imbalanced grape chemistry in some areas and rapidly put on sugar; days later, rainfall may have reversed those sugar increases. Such a growing season may present challenges for winemakers, but we have not heard of any large rejections of fruit and do not foresee any wine quality issues.
Meanwhile, picking continues, with the mid-September rain potentially stretching out the harvest finish. The final stages of the picking timetable in Lake and Mendocino have slowed back towards a more normal year; Sonoma is still ahead, picking Cabernet 1-2 weeks early. The feeling is the North Coast crop is lighter than the average on most varieties, certainly Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc, and Zinfandel. Most North Coast areas are likely to see lighter crops, except Mendocino where output appears a little closer to average in those parts of the county that escaped the early-season frost. The Central Coast is approximately 85-90% through harvest; many growers state they have two weeks or so left of picking, which would mean harvest concluding close to a normal time. Chardonnay and Pinot Noir – including in Monterey – have come in light; Cabernet is amid picking now. Overages have not been in evidence in the Coast.
Yields in Lodi and the Central Valley seem a little better relative to the Coast, perhaps closer to the average. A tendency to feel the crop is short is potentially attributable to the balanced grape market in the Interior. Overages have occurred and have been acquired, sometimes at full price. Pockets of southern Valley Muscat keep popping up, suggesting an above-average crop for the variety this year. The picking timeline has been a little ahead of a normal year, and – in some instance – may have been further ahead were in not for some logistics and winery logjams as grapes became ready all at once.
We maintain our rough estimate of a 2022 crop of 3.5-3.7 million tons, the closerto-average crops in Mendocino and the Interior likely averting an overall figure below 3.5 million tons. Last year’s crop was 3.61 million tons and 2020’s was 3.4 million, so 2022 would be the third-successive crop in which output is well below the 4-million-ton mark that we take as the average.
Read on to find out how perceptions around the new crop are affecting the grape and bulk wine markets. Given the earliness of the crop, we are already receiving requests for samples: Get in touch with your grape and bulk wine supplies and needs as soon as possible – the Ciatti team stands ready to help match buyers with sellers and disseminate samples.