"In the dark": Wine industry crying out for certainty
October rainfall complicated harvest at the end of an already challenging growing season, characterized by cooler-than-normal weather and slower ripening. Growers held on for as long as possible in an attempt to attain requisite Brix levels, and some breakdown of fruit was evident, potentially reducing the final state-wide tonnage figure to the lower end of already modest expectations.
The late-season grape market was very quiet, further reducing the picking of grapes in the harvest’s final weeks. This month’s report relays where and on what grapes activity did occur, and looks ahead to what we might expect to see on the 2026 grape-buying campaign. The bulk wine market has been more active, picking up slightly as October turned to November: We report on what wines this activity has occurred, where, and the identity of the buyers.
The list of factors hindering market confidence is lengthy: Negative case-good sales growth ultimately leading to an industry cashflow and credit crisis; distributor changes and M&A churn; Canada’s embargo on selling US alcohol and wider macro and micro economic uncertainty. Once case-good sales stabilize, the larger wineries will be able to commit to buying bulk wines more concertedly and, in turn, grape demand should rise. The industry will then know what sort of harvest size is optimal for market equilibrium. Until then, it is in the dark, left to hope that the consecutive short crops of 2024 and 2025 help to meaningfully address the supply-demand imbalance.
Paying subscribers can read the full Ciatti California Report for September on Substack.
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actionable bulk wine and grape market intelligence;
the latest bulk inventory charts by volume and by varietal;
the Ciatti Bulk/Grape Market Barometer;
updates on vineyard conditions and harvest;
SipSource data on US wholesaler depletions;
Saxco beverage packaging update;
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Bulk wine suppliers are invited to list their 2025 wines with us and send in samples, and ensure they have their 2024 wines on our inventory list, so we are able to harness buyer interest as it arises.
Grape growers are recommended to inform us of the grapes they may have available next year, in 2026, so we can work to match-up suppliers with buyers.
Please contact Mark (+1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com), Michael (+1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com) or the Ciatti Customer Account Team (cargroup@ciatti.com).
Prospective buyers of bulk wine or 2026 grapes should reach out to our broker team.