California’s 2023 crop has continued to run behind by between two and four weeks, depending on area: Lake and Mendocino counties, for example, can be characterized as running less behind than other areas of the Coast. September brought generally cool conditions, some spotty rainfall to northern California mid-month, and some more widespread showers at the end, exacerbating the pre-existing delay to berry sizing and ripening caused by unseasonable coolness throughout the growing season and Hurricane Hilary’s humidity in August.
This meant berries were sizing up all through September, then a mini heatwave at the start of October brought a few successive days of 90°F+. Consequently, a lot of fruit sized and became riper in a short period of time, shifting the harvest into higher gear and potentially putting pressure on logistics such as trucking, crush capacity and storage. Now that we are into mid-October, the urge to get the grapes in will intensify: Sales of grape juice concentrate have been robust as winemakers seeks to mitigate any lower sugar levels. How far the crush window can extend is in Mother Nature’s hands: Will she permit picking as late as the second half of November? At this point, that may be how long is required. Some Coastal sparkling grapes are still getting picked into October, for example.
We have seen the crop continue to size late in the season thanks to cool weather, adequate soil moisture, and lush vine growth. The shatter of earlier in the season is now of less concern, as the berries that were left have sized up markedly in many instances. Most growers adjusted their practices because of soil moisture levels, but few foresaw the extent of the sizing and the ensuing difficulty in getting all the fruit to ripen before the season closes. Big berries have in turn led to some tight clusters, complicating the pre-existing rot issue, which has been particularly evident in the Interior, although that may simply be because harvest there is slightly more advanced than in the Coast.
The main consequence of grape sizing is more vineyards producing tonnages above estimates, albeit performances vary considerably from area to area, vineyard to vineyard. It does seem that whites in areas of the northern Interior have come in heavier than expected, delaying ripeness to coincide with any average-cropping red grapes. The picture on the Interior’s Chardonnay and later reds – namely Cabernet – remains unclear, so too the crop in the southern Valley in general. The lack of clarity in general prevents us from being able to provide a confident state-wide crop estimate. In addition to the season’s lateness, rejections of fruit by wineries and the fate of unsold grapes further complicate calculations. What is certain is that the more fruit picked this year, the more downward pressure will be exerted on 2023 vintage bulk prices.
The above and following pages simply relay what we have been seeing: There remains a lot we still do not know. For the most up to the minute information, get in touch with Ciatti directly – the broker team can draw on its many decades of experience to help guide buyers and sellers through this low-visibility environment.