Veraison has been proceeding at a relatively rapid, uniform pace across California’s growing areas in the past four weeks, so that the crop is likely to come in earlier than previously expected: The picking schedule looks to be approximately in line with 2021’s. Above-average temperatures are possible through August. Lack of water is a concern, but precipitation – the chances of which are rated normal over the next month – would not be conducive to grape health at this late stage anyway.
Time will tell if the rapid veraison is solely due to conditions, or also an indication of a shorter crop. The latter remains a possible cause, considering we have not experienced the kind of heat levels normally required to bring on veraison so speedily. As last month, degree-day accumulation has been patchy, with Napa, Sonoma and Paso Robles on a par with 2021, Mendocino and King City in southern Monterey still behind 2021 numbers, and Lodi and the Central Valley slightly behind. Humidity levels have been high – attributable to what meteorologists have called an “enhanced monsoon flow” – but vine health, in general, appears normal.
Timing in the North Coast is relatively normal now that veraison has sped up: Some grapes for sparkling programs are starting to get picked, also some early Sauvignon Blanc. More widely across the North Coast, early areas and early whites are expected to be underway in the second or third week of August. Shatter levels this year have led to some expectations of a North Coast crop below average in size.
The veraison pace has reversed expectations of a Central Coast picking timetable 2-3 weeks behind even last year’s late one, to a timetable now 2-3 weeks ahead, commencing in the second week of August. Paso Robles and the southern San Joaquin Valley in particular saw some shatter and have been battling dry conditions, with vines and canopies in some areas struggling to look as healthy as they have done up in the northern Central and North Coasts, where some vineyards look healthier than last year. In general, younger plantings appear in better shape than older ones.
The same is true in Lodi, where picking of grapes for sparkling is underway and expected to commence on the still whites in the second week of August: i.e., in line with last year’s timetable. Older-vine Zinfandel experienced shot berries and Cabernet shatter, but vines are now fully developed and grapes colored. The Lodi crop could be average-sized if not larger; the southern Valley, however, is a tougher one to call. Taking all the above into account, we forecast a 2022 crop somewhere in the 3.7-3.9-million-ton range: Below the 4.0-million-ton mark, but up from 2021’s 3.61 million tons. Crush and storage capacity remains plentiful.
The bulk wine and grape markets, meanwhile, have grown very quiet, abnormally so even for what is traditionally a quiet time of year. This month’s report tries to get a handle on what’s going on, and what bulk wine and grape suppliers should be doing in response. The Ciatti team stands ready to draw on its decades of experience to help you navigate a market in flux: Read on for more market information, and don’t hesitate to get in touch.