September brought consistently warm temperatures to California but no weather extremes. Most areas are moving into the final stages of harvest earlier than normal, to varying extents, though parts of the Central Coast are noticeably behind – Monterey, for example, is not estimated to finish picking until sometime in the first half of November. Growing areas have been unaffected by wildfire smoke, especially as those parts currently at higher risk of poor air quality have already finished harvesting.
For a breakdown of the latest harvest news by area, see the next page. As well as being late, the crops in Monterey and Santa Barbara are – in stark contrast to those in the rest of the state – looking larger than average, and there has been some sizing up in evidence on the late-season varietals in Lodi. Consequently, we feel more confident that the state’s August forecast of 3.6 million tons still holds true. There have been issues around this year’s harvest that will not affect the final crop size and which are not exclusive to the wine industry, having been brought about by the post-pandemic economic recovery in the US: Attracting labor has been challenging and the cost of it has risen, while many wineries and growers have been affected by the nationwide trucking shortage. Crush and storage capacity, on the other hand, has not been a widespread problem.
There have been some late-season deals for Central Coast fruit but, in general, 2021 grapes are now fully contracted in the Coast, just as they have been for some time in the Central Valley. Buyer hesitancy on the Coastal bulk wine market persists, far more than would normally be seen in a second-successive lighter crop year. On the remaining 2020 wines this uncertainty can at least be partially attributable to smoke exposure perceptions, but the relative softness of 2021 demand points to a lack of confidence regarding future sales of Coastal wines. The California appellation is driving sales in the pandemic/ post-pandemic off-premise environment, which hints at the pricing level many buyers are expecting for wines from anywhere in the state of California outside the most exclusive appellations such as Napa Valley.
California’s drought is not set to be greatly alleviated any time soon, with forecasts of a La Niña effect emerging during October/November that has “fairly high odds” – according to viticultural climatologist Gregory V. Jones – of causing a drier than average winter throughout the state. After a dry year and some challenging environmental conditions, we do see vines in certain areas looking tired and requiring the reset a winter with healthy precipitation levels brings. Vine condition can transform quickly if rain does come, but it is something to keep an eye on over the next few months as we begin to take next year’s potential yields into account when making decisions. On that note, whether you’re a buyer or a seller we are here to help you navigate the twists and turns of the market now and for the long term: Don’t hesitate to get in touch if you need our assistance, and stay safe.