A cooler than normal spring to date, following a wetter than normal winter, has delayed vineyard development in much of California by between 10 days to three weeks when compared with recent years. The forecast is for continued cooler weather in the first part of May before the eventual arrival of higher temperatures, raising the prospect of the growing cycle being further behind by the time June comes around.
While the high precipitation levels of the first quarter of the year have been welcome, as they considerably eased drought levels across the state, growers are now impatient to get on with the season. Recent weeks have finally been dry enough in the Coast to allow vineyard work, including the first preventative sprays; disease pressure has not been a reported issue. The cooler spring has prevented premature budbreak, limiting the frost risk so far, and the very few cluster count reports we have received – mainly from the North Coast – have been positive. Cluster counts have yet to be reported in the Central Coast, where a later growing season is of particular concern given it tends to be the last area picked in the state. The delay to the season’s start makes the harvest more susceptible to late-season weather and raises the prospect of logjams at wineries later on if everything ripens close together, particularly in those areas focussed on late-season red grape production.
In the Interior, vine development in the southern Central Valley is probably less behind than elsewhere, and growers have been very glad of the greater water availability. In Lodi, waterlogged ground has continued to impede vineyard work in some areas. Snow melt is a flood risk throughout the Valley and alerts are in place. Sierra Nevada snowpack was at 254% of normal as of May 1st, the second-highest level on record for that time, and rivers are brimming. The cooler temperatures have hindered a steady melt, storing up the potential for flooding when consistently warm temperatures finally arrive.
Only after bloom and fruit set through May and early June can the 2023 crop size be guesstimated. Until then, the bulk wine and grape markets are likely to continue at the lethargic pace we have seen over the past 3-4 months, as buyers and sellers alike bide their time trying to discern the future amid economic fragility that is all too real, as illustrated by the number of wine businesses currently carrying out rightsizing in order to eke out some cost savings.
Interest rate rises, bank failures, and a weakness in wine sales across all settings (on-premise, off-premise and DTC) are understandably spooking wine and grape buyers, while suppliers are seeking to retain margin amid elevated input costs. The result is a buyer-seller standoff on most items in most areas. This market slowness is mirrored throughout the world, and compounds the dragging effect of wine’s pre-existing structural issue, globally: consumption has declined since its peak in 2007, as younger drinkers choose from a proliferation of alternative – often better-marketed – beverages.
With all this in mind, we encourage businesses to stay as well-informed and openminded as possible. The Ciatti team can draw on its many decades of experience to help buyers and sellers navigate the present challenges: Don’t hesitate to get in touch. In the meantime, read on for our latest analysis.