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Demand decline improving with stabilization on the horizon
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a division of First Citizens Bank, today released its 2026 State of the US Wine Industry Report. Widely regarded as the leading source of market trends in the premium wine sector, SVB’s 25th annual report provides an analysis of current market conditions, success strategies, and forecasts for the year ahead.
The 2026 report estimates the following industry sales totals for 2025:
- Total volume of ~329 million cases (down from 335.9 million in 2024)
- Total value of ~$74.3 billion (down from $75.5 billion in 2024).
The wine industry is moving through a multi-year demand correction, largely driven by value wines at the under $12 price point. Industry sales in 2025 declined 2.0% (by cases) and 1.6% (by dollars), yet both represent improvements compared to 2024. The industry ended the year with both profit margin compression and higher levels of inventory.
The premium industry will likely experience its first sales growth rate decline in since 2020. In the first half of 2025, financial results collected in SVB’s Peer Group Analysis Database show premium winery revenues were down 1.2% in both case and dollars sales. The premium segment demonstrated balanced to slightly heavy inventories.
“We expect the decline in total market demand to improve in 2026, with the market bottoming in 2027 through 2028 before returning to modest growth rates,” said Rob McMillan, First Citizens Bank’s Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division founder and author of the report. “This is not a cycle you can wait out. The wineries still demonstrating growth are not betting on a return to normal – they are fundamentally altering how they engage with the consumer, manage inventory, and are redefining their brand’s value proposition.”
The 2026 SVB wine report examines the latest consumption, pricing and sales data as well as the most promising wine industry marketing strategies. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the key trends and data impacting the US wine industry:
- The rate of the demand decline for the wine industry is predicted to improve in 2026, bounce along a bottom through 2027-2028, then shift back to modest growth.
- Excess inventory of high-quality, bulk wine is creating compelling consumer value in private labels, where wine demand is growing in double digits.
- Oversupply remains a structural headwind with elevated inventories spanning the entire supply chain. That will improve only when demand improves at retail.
- Tasting room visits declined at smaller hospitality-focused wineries as did average check sizes at most small, direct-to-consumer-focused wineries.
Silicon Valley Bank will host a live webinar to discuss the annual report and state of the wine industry on January 15th at 9:00 a.m. PST. The panel will include Rob McMillan of Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First Citizen Bank, Janie Brooks Heuck, Managing Director of Brooks Wine, Kristin Marchesi, Managing Director of Metis Mergers & Acquisitions, and Matthew Owings, VP and General Manager of Rombauer Vineyards. Register for the live webinar here. A replay of the discussion will be available after the event.
Event Type: Webinar
Location: Online
Date: 1/15/2026
Please join us on Thursday, January 15 for a live, virtual event to review findings and analysis from our 2026 State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report.
Our panel of wine industry experts will present findings from the latest SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry survey and discuss market sentiment, ongoing business challenges and share success stories.
In this year’s session, we will:
- Examine the biggest impacts on U.S. wineries’ financial health.
- Analyze the ongoing shifts in consumer behavior.
- Investigate the relationship between wine supply and emerging threats.
- Explore the sales strategies currently used by leading brands.
Our panel of wine industry innovators hosting this discussion include:
- Rob McMillan – EVP & Founder, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division
- Janie Brooks Heuck – Managing Director, Brooks Wine
- Kristin Marchesi – Managing Director, Metis Mergers & Acquisitions
- Matt Owings – COO & CFO, Rombauer Vineyards
Virtual Event Details
- Thursday, January 15, 2026
- 9:00 am – 10:30 am PT
Register today and join us for another thought-provoking virtual gathering.
We can’t do this without your help
Completing this year’s SVB State of the Wine Industry survey is your chance to vote for us to continue our decades-long effort to offer insights to our vintner partners.
As a survey participant, you will you be the first to receive a copy of the report, plus exclusive insights not found in the report, 80+ charts, and regional benchmarks only available to survey participants.
But time is running out. The survey will be closing on Monday, October 27th.
The 2026 State of the Wine Industry survey is now open. As always, your input is invaluable to determining where the industry is heading and answering difficult questions, like:
- Where are the growth opportunities in a rapidly changing environment?
- What tactics are successful vintners using to find growth?
- Are your biggest challenges unique to your region or business model?
- How should you address the various risks to your business?
- With limited time and capital, where are successful vintners streamlining for efficiency?
There are so many questions that the SVB State of the US Wine Industry report tries to take on to help give the industry guidance. But this is a partnership between SVB and the industry. We can’t do this without your help.
As a survey participant, not only will you be the first to receive a copy of the report, but we’ll also share exclusive insights, 80+ charts, and regional benchmarks only available to survey participants.
Thank you in advance for your participation. We’re looking forward to sending you this year’s results.
Sincerely,
Rob McMillan
EVP and Founder, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division
